Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 27, 2026 05:31 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSunbelt Rentals Inc. | Europe Annelies Vermeulen

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4367

Sunbelt Rentals Inc. (SUNB.L, SUNB LN)

What’s Changed Business Services | United Kingdom

Sunbelt Rentals Inc. (SUNB.L) From To Stock Rating Overweight

Price Target 6,400p 6,700p Industry View Attractive

Price target 6,700p

Bull Case 7,750p 8,100p

Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) 5,668p

Base Case 6,400p 6,700p 52-Week Range 6,514-4,610p

Bear Case 3,600p 3,770p

Fiscal Year Ending 04/26 04/27e 04/28e 04/29e

Updated Components

EPS (US$)** 3.72 4.11 4.76 5.45

EPS

Prior EPS (US$)** 3.65 4.40 5.03 5.77

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Investment Drivers Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Sunbelt Rentals Inc. (SUNB.L) has been updated

Reason for change

We update our estimates following the FY26 results. For FY27, we forecast 6.5%

rental revenue growth, which is in line with the group’s guidance for rental revenue

growth of +5-8% and total revenue growth of +4.5-7.5% (MSe: 6.8%). We forecast

an adjusted EBITDA of $5.00bn, in line with guidance for $4.85bn to $5.05bn, which

implies a margin of 42% (flattish yoy). Overall, our headline assumptions for rental

revenue growth, EBITDA and operating profit over FY27-29e are broadly unchanged

(1-2% vs prev), while our PBT and EPS trim down 5-6% on higher interest costs vs

our previous estimate. In our valuation model, this is balanced by a roll forward of

our DCF for the year end and update of higher peer valuation multiples, which lifts

our price target by 4.5% to 6,700p (vs.