The Trend Is Finally Their Friend: TFI International Inc | North America

Research evidence excerpt

The Trend Is Finally Their Friend: TFI International Inc | North America

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 27

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $230.00 BASE CASE $190.00 BEAR CASE $65.00

25x Bull Case FY25 EPS 20.0x normalized EPS 10.0x Bear Case FY25 EPS

The upcycle begins. Demand snaps back in Supply catalysts tip the scales. The demand Status quo continues. The cycle continues

mid-2026 and supply continues to tighten at side remains tepid tracking normal where it left off ending 2025, the supply

the same time, driving the robust upcycle seasonality while the supply side continues side catalysts fizzle out and earnings track

we have been waiting for. Mgmt. makes to tighten and gradually pushes rate normal seasonality from the end of 2025. TL

progress towards a high 80s OR while upward. TFII's TL segment sees growth from pricing and volumes do not see any material

seeing mid-teens%+ revenue growth. The stronger rates as capacity tightens, although inflection as even more

LTL market continues to consolidate driving volumes remain fairly steady seq. Execution specialized/defensive end markets feel the

outsized organic results while TForce on cost initiatives at Daseke and TForce take burden of tariff headwinds. The cost

Freight accelerates its contribution to EBIT. hold resulting in OR improvement vs. 2025. initiatives/rolloff prove less substantial and

Mgmt. capitalizes on Daseke, M&A, and Mgmt.