EM Strategy CEEMEA – What’s in the Price?

Research evidence excerpt

EM Strategy CEEMEA – What’s in the Price?

July 27, 2026 11:20 AM GMT

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H EM Strategy

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Arnav Gupta CEEMEA – What’s in the Price? Strategist

Arnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com

Recent Publications: Upcoming Central Bank Meetings – Pricing: +44 20 7677-0382

• CEEMEA Economics Weekly: Not as Clear as it Seemed – The James K Lord

bar for another rate increase in South Africa is higher than we had Strategist

assumed. We expect the policy rate to remain at 7% for an James.Lord@morganstanley.com+44 20 7677-3254

extended period and move our first cut to May 2027. In the week

ahead, we have growth and inflation data in CEE. Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune • South Africa Economics: SARB: Holding at 7, Waiting for 3? – Strategist

The SARB surprised by holding its policy rate steady today, a rare Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com

instance where market participants were caught off-guard. We do +91 22 6996-1862

not expect a catch-up hike in September, instead we see a

delayed resumption of the SARB's easing cycle.

• Hungary Economics and Macro Strategy: NBH Preview: Reducing

Tightness – With inflation subdued, we expect the NBH to ease Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: We use cubic

its key policy rate by 25bp to 5.75%. We believe forward guidance interpolations to derive the FRA for the meeting dates. We further calculate the basis as the 6m

may become more cautious on the back of the resurfacing energy average between the IBOR vs the base rate on the dates after the meeting to exclude the drift. We assume constant basis on all parts of the curve. Our drift tells us how much is being priced in the

price volatility.