MSSBT Sep-26 Forecast:51 Inclusions and 13 Deletions: China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

MSSBT Sep-26 Forecast:51 Inclusions and 13 Deletions: China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific

Idea

July 27, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Laura Wang

Equity Strategist

MSSBT Sep-26 Forecast: 51 Laura.Wang@morganstanley.comVicky Wu +852 2848-6853

Vicky.Wu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3928

Inclusions and 13 Deletions Chloe Liu

Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5497

YTD Southbound flows remain meaningful with one of the

highest daily average net inflows in history. Backed by MSSBT's

strong historical hit ratio and proforma performance, we

forecast 51 inclusions and 13 deletions for the September 2026

review with implementation details and key dates to watch.

Exhibit 1 : Hit ratio of MSSBT since launch -

MSSBT was launched in Aug 2025, forecasting Southbound stock inclusions

higher than 90% in both directions

through its bi-annual review cycle. It was later upgraded to MSSBT V2 in

Inclusion: 9/5/2025 3/9/2026

February 2026, by incorporating the deletion forecasts as well, aiming to capture MSSBT forecast result - raw 19 44

alpha-generating opportunities from both legs. So far, the framework has (>=95%) Stocks actually included from SB 20 42

through regular adjustments

hit ratio of forecasts for inclusion and deletions. In the September 2025 review MSSBT forecast stocks made to actual

19 41

cycle, MSSBT identified 19 of 20 actual inclusion candidates. In March 2026, the inclusion

Hit ratio (% of actual list predicted) 95% 98%

model captured 41 of 42 actual inclusions, and 24 of 25 deletion candidates. Hit ratio (% of MSSBT made into actual

100% 93%

lists)

Proforma performance indicates strong absolute return as well as alpha

Deletion: 9/5/2025 3/9/2026