LATAM Today: July 27, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 27, 2026

Economics Research

27 July 2026 | 9:01AM EDT

RamosBRAZIL Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Consumer Confidence Eased in July Driven by the Current Conditions Component Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaBottom Line: The FGV consumer confidence index declined by 0.4pt in July to 88.3, Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

adding to the small May/Jun 0.3/0.1pt declines. The headline index was dragged by sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the current conditions component (-2.6pt to 84.4). The expectations component Santiago Tellez

rose 1.1pt to a still soft 91.5 and remains in pessimistic territory and also below the +1(212)855-0367 |

santiago.tellez@gs.com

Dec-25 level. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

DETAILS:

1. The FGV consumer confidence index declined by 0.4pt in July to 88.3, adding

to the small May/Jun 0.3/0.1pt declines. Consumer confidence is tracking slightly

below the end-2025 level.

2. The component measuring current conditions declined by a large 2.6pt to 84.4

(interrupting a sequence of three consecutive increases), and the expectations

component rose by 1.1pt to 91.5 (below the 93.8 Dec-25 reading).

3. The current conditions and expectations components are tracking in pessimistic

territory.

Higher 2027/28 Inflation Expectations; Stable End-2026/27/28 Selic Rate; Lower

2027 Growth Expectations

Bottom Line: Inflation expectations improved slightly for 2026 (-3bp to 5.12%) but rose

for the policy-relevant 2027 (+2bp to a high 4.22%), and for the second week in a row for

2028 (+2bp to 3.80%); all well above the 3.0% inflation target. The median expectation for

end-2026/27/28 Selic rate remained at 14.00%/12.00%/10.50%. The expectations for

2026/27 real GDP growth are tracking at 1.99%/1.60%(-5bp). The median expectation