This week: FOMC, BTP€i supply, MPC, month-end: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

This week: FOMC, BTP€i supply, MPC, month-end: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

27 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

This week: FOMC, BTP€i supply,

MPC, month-end

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: The three key risk events for the US inflation market this week are set to be: 1) the July

Apostolos Apostolou

FOMC on Wednesday, with the market implying a 35% probability of a hike at time of writing, 2) +1 212 526 5051

month-end on Friday, which comes with a sizable duration extension this month, and 3) the apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and implications for energy markets (arguably BCI, US

not a specific risk event, but clearly an important lingering factor). With Barclays economists

expecting no hike this week, we continue to recommend being long 5y5y CPI swaps into the

event, which has space to take a leg higher were no hawkish surprise to occur, though last week

we moved up our stop to 2.35% to lock in at least modest profit were the FOMC to proceed with

a rate increase. Friday is month-end and Bloomberg projects the duration extension of the 1-30y

Series-L TIPS index to be 0.20y, in-line with our projection earlier this month.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: Data out Friday included the latest Consumer Expectations Survey

from the ECB, which showed median 12m/3y/5y ahead inflation expectations 3.0/2.8/2.4%,

down 0.5/0.1/0.0pp, respectively, while July flash PMIs suggested that the euro area economy

entered Q3 on a strong footing, with services momentum rebounding sharply and

manufacturing activity continuing to show resilience.