Lifting earnings and target multiple on market share momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Lifting earnings and target multiple on market share momentum

Equity Research

27 July 2026

Marks & Spencer Group plc

Lifting earnings and target

multiple on market share

MKS.L/MKS LN OVERWEIGHTmomentum

Unchanged

We raise our Food and FH&B estimates following encouraging European General Retail NEUTRAL

UK market share data. We cut International forecasts back in Unchanged

March for Middle East conflict. Now at £940m PBT for FY27. PT Price Target raised 10% fromGBPGBP4.504.10

raised to 450p (PE of 13x). Reiterate OW - Remains preferred Price (24-Jul-26) GBP 3.81

name in European Retail. Next hard catalyst in Nov. Potential Upside/Downside +18.3% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Food market share. We lift our Food LFL sales assumptions following very positive reads from Market Cap (GBP mn) 7913

Worldpanel and Nielsen UK grocery market share data. Worldpanel data indicates c. +15% Shares Outstanding (mn) 2079.64

growth in M&S's 1Q (April-June), while Nielsen indicates growth of c. +16-17%. We now forecast Free Float (%) 99.98

total sales growth of +12% in 1Q (vs +7% previously) allowing for some over-read margin given 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 5.9

the noisy cyber-incident comps. Our FY26/27 Food sales forecasts rise by +1%, while our margin Dividend Yield (%) 1.10

remains broadly unchanged at 5.2%, slightly below pre-cyber levels of 5.4%. We also note Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.83

Ocado Retail's impressive market share performance which should support the JV's financial Current BVPS (GBP) 1.48

performance, but also continue to provide commercial synergies for M&S Food (>£1bn of M&S Source: Bloomberg

product now sold through Ocado).

Price Performance Exchange-LSE

Fashion market share. We lift our FH&B LFL assumptions to reflect encouraging trends in