Updating estimates into 2Q; PJM and ERCOT regulatory developments in focus

Research evidence excerpt

Updating estimates into 2Q; PJM and ERCOT regulatory developments in focus

Goldman Sachs Americas Utilities: Power - IPPs

Vistra (VST, Buy)

Quarterly outlook

We increase our EBITDA estimates for 2Q26 ahead of results for Vistra, as we expect

relatively stronger results at Retail, while we trim our numbers for East and Texas on

milder weather/volumes than previously expected. Still, we see yoy increase in Texas and

East, the latter partly due to the acquisition of Lotus (closed October 2025) which

should impact the full quarter, compared to no impact last year. Overall, we continue to

see highly attractive fundamentals in the base business at VST, supported by strong

operational execution and constructive regulatory tailwinds. For the upcoming 2Q26

earnings call, we expect investor attention to center on the following key areas:

n PJM and ERCOT regulatory developments. We expect commentary on the Vistra

2Q26 call to largely focus on PJM and ERCOT dynamics, especially around upcoming

regulatory developments. In ERCOT, August 7 is a key milestone for transmission

service providers of the Batch Zero process, which although not directly impacting

VST, management framing around the results will be informative for the sector.

Meanwhile, PJM is expected to file its Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP)

proposal with FERC on July 31, followed by a version of the Connect and Manage

(C&M) proposal on August 7. These filings remain separate, and the final structure of

C&M is still uncertain. We expect management to share their perspective on these

filings and the broader FERC governance discussions.

n Updates on recent M&A. We look for any commentary on the recently announced

partnership with Helix and the broader M&A/growth pipeline, which we view as a