Takeaways from 2Q26 Card Earnings and Macro Commentary from Banks

Research evidence excerpt

Takeaways from 2Q26 Card Earnings and Macro Commentary from Banks

Equity Research

27 July 2026

U.S. Consumer Finance

Takeaways from 2Q26 Card

Earnings and Macro Commentary

U.S. Consumer Financefrom Banks

NEUTRAL

Consumer credit remains benign and purchase volume U.S. Consumer Finance

Terry Ma, CFAmomentum continued in 2Q26, reflecting a strong consumer.

2Q26 results were mixed with beats from reserve releases but +1terry.ma@barclays.com212 526 7965

some PPNR misses. Management teams remain cautious on BCI, US

2H due to macro uncertainty. Cordelia R Deng

+1 212 526 7625

cordeliar.deng@barclays.com

We recap key trends from card earnings and summarize investor feedback from recent BCI, US

conversations. BAC, C, JPM, and WFC in charts below are covered by Jason Goldberg, Barclays' Jack Margolius

Large-Cap Banks Analyst. +1 212 526 9132

jack.margolius@barclays.com

What we learned from card earnings: BCI, US

1. Consumer Credit Remains Strong and Continues to Improve Y/Y. 30D+ DQs for cards

improved by 14bps y/y, compared to -11bps in 1Q26 and -14bps in 4Q25. NCOs were down

34bps, compared to -59bps y/y in 1Q26 and -51bps in 4Q25. Recall the trajectory of DQs are a

good indicator of NCOs. As a result, we expect NCOs should continue to improve through

2026. Notably, BFH and JPM improved their NCO guides, with BFH improving from 7.2-7.4%

to 7.0-7.1%.

2. Purchase Volume Growth Meaningfully Accelerated Y/Y. Purchase volume growth

momentum continued, increasing to 9.6% (including COF is 12%), compared to +8.3% y/y in

1Q26 and +6.2% in 4Q25. AXP continued to see strength in retail spend, travel, and

restaurants. SYF saw DD growth in both discretionary and non-discretionary for out-of-

partner co-brand, and saw accelerating growth from April (+6%) to June (+11%) for its