AUSTRALIA TRANSPORTATION: AIRLINES: Read-through from US mainline results/guidance

Research evidence excerpt

AUSTRALIA TRANSPORTATION: AIRLINES: Read-through from US mainline results/guidance

Goldman Sachs Australia Transportation: Airlines

of the growth coming from unit revenue. Management’s strong underlying revenue

outlook performance is expected to remain broad-based across geographies,

supported by continued strength in both domestic and international markets. By

cabin, premium PRASM was +13% yoy in 2Q26 vs main cabin PRASM of +9% yoy,

with corporate and premium leisure supporting premium PRASK growth. DAL called

out higher RASM exit rate vs the start of the quarter as fuel recovery pricing flowed

through bookings. Management also expects sequential improvement in long-haul

international RASM. However, in contrast to AAL/UAL, DAL’s main cabin RASM

growth of DD% yoy was higher than premium cabin RASM growth of HSD% yoy.

n Unit revenue strength sustainability comes into question. UAL’s management

believes that even if fuel prices decline, the industry will remain disciplined on

pricing, since the majority of the RASM gains in FY26 are driven by structural

changes to the industry’s cost structure, with significant cost inflation across labour,

airport, and maintenance costs post-pandemic. Management estimates that only

~10% of this year’s RASM gains are driven by capacity cuts due to fuel prices.

n Summary of FY capacity guidance: DAL expects 1% yoy capacity growth in 3Q26,

accelerating to 2%-3% in 4Q26, while AAL expects 3%-5% yoy capacity growth for

3Q26 (Exhibit 4), above its network carrier peers. UAL management did not provide

capacity guidance for 3Q26 but expects capacity to accelerate into 4Q26 to growth

of <7.3% yoy (vs flat to up 2% prior).

n Summary of FY revenue / unit revenue guidance: AAL expects underlying 3Q26

revenue growth of ~16%-19% yoy.