Chugai 2QFY26: No worries about the earning miss. We have finally seen some hope in the mid-size molecule pipeline asset

Research evidence excerpt

Chugai 2QFY26: No worries about the earning miss. We have finally seen some hope in the mid-size molecule pipeline asset

Miki Sogi, Ph.D. +81 3 6777 6991 miki.sogi@bernsteinsg.com 24 July 2026

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We are not sold on Chugai’s claim that NXT007 should become their “next-generation growth driver” (Exhibit 2).

Based on the preclinical and clinical data disclosed to date, we think that NXT007 has good chance to prove to have even better

efficacy than Hemlibra in the recently initiated H2H Ph3. Yet ironically, Hemlibra is so successful with ~50% penetration in US

and EU hemophilia A market, and we don’t think that its biosimilar entry in early 2030’s is highly unlikely (bispecific antibody

manufacturing is not as straightforward as monoclonal antibody’s). Chugai explained at the earning call today that they think

of two sources of business for NXT007: switch from Hemlibra for those with severe conditions who need stronger efficacy;

and switch from factor 8 users for those who are still on the conventional and inconvenient (frequent IV at hospitals/clinics)

med. The former opportunity should depend on NXT007’s price, yet it is unlikely that it has significantly higher price than

Hemlibra (e.g., 30%+). The latter may be challenging as these patients should have some particular reasons not to have adopted

Hemlibra, and we don’t know whether NXT007can crack it if it is just a better version of Hemlibra.

AQUA07, an allosteric ALK inhibitor, has potential to be bigger than Alecensa. It is Chugai’s third mid-size molecule,

which is expected to be in Ph1 soon and has received FDA’s Fast Track designation based on its preclinical data (which is a

quite unusual case).