GLOBAL FX TRADER Carry, With Energy

Research evidence excerpt

GLOBAL FX TRADER Carry, With Energy

Economics Research

24 July 2026 | 9:00PM BST

GLOBAL FX TRADER

Carry, With Energy

Our thoughts on USD, EUR, GBP, ZAR, JPY, HUF, AUD/NZD, & IDR Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 |

n USD: Is this thing on? Despite a lot of macro news, actual Dollar moves have kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

been quite constrained in recent weeks. When we assess relative performance Michael Cahill

beneath the surface over the last few weeks, a number of familiar themes are still +44(20)7552-8314michael.e.cahill@gs.com|

clearly driving returns—high- vs low-yielding carry most of all, together with Goldman Sachs International

energy ToT coming back to the forefront. On the latter, we think the Dollar’s Danny+65-6889-1987Suwanapruti|

more muted performance is consistent with a stronger starting point and less danny.suwanapruti@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

safe-haven demand than in March. However, high energy prices should also Teresa Alves

provide some cushion for the Dollar against the on-hold FOMC decision we +44(20)7051-7566teresa.alves@gs.com|

expect next week. If oil prices stay elevated, we do not expect much change in Goldman Sachs International

Karen Reichgott Fishman cumulative hike pricing or pass-through to the Dollar on the decision, despite +1(212)855-6006 |

markets pricing a meaningful chance of a rate hike next week. Over the more karen.fishman@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

medium term, we see our economists’ call for the FOMC to remain on hold Stuart Jenkins

+44(20)7051-4700 |

through the end of the year as a modest but manageable headwind for the stuart.jenkins@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

currency against its G10 peers. Factors like carry, ToT and (relatedly) relative

Victor Engel