Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 24, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs Global Economics Wrap-Up

o The DM input price PMI fell by -3.3pt to 68.4 for manufacturing and rose by

0.4pt to 62.4 for services; the DM output price PMI fell by -1.6pt to 59.6 for

manufacturing and rose by +0.6pt to 56.6 for services.

US Economics

7/24/26 11:47AM ET

n We previewed the new Fed task forces, the criticisms Warsh has made, what the task

force leaders might recommend, and what the FOMC might accept:

o Communications: We think the FOMC would probably see getting rid of the

Summary of Economic Projections entirely as too large a step away from

transparency.

§ It could modify the SEP by, for example, no longer publishing the

median projection to avoid seeming to endorse it.

o Balance sheet: We see little support for abandoning the ample-reserves

framework and consequently only limited room for regulatory and supervisory

changes to shrink banks’ demand for reserves balances and the size of the

balance sheet.

o Data: While there is broad support for incorporating alternative data sources,

they often fail to meet three requirements for high-quality economic statistics.

As a result, they are unlikely to fully replace the official data.

o AI, productivity, and jobs: Most Fed officials will likely be skeptical that monetary

policy decisions today should be influenced by a forecast of how AI will affect

productivity growth in the future.

o Inflation frameworks: The task force leaders will likely take a mainstream view of

what drives inflation but might advocate taking another look at monetary

aggregates.

§ The most immediate question is how to respond to inflation caused by

supply shocks.

n We track the breadth of high inflation across categories to monitor the risk that price