Wal-Mart de Mexico (WALMEX.MX): Revising estimates on lower guidance; encouraging KPIs, but Bodega recovery will take time

Research evidence excerpt

Wal-Mart de Mexico (WALMEX.MX): Revising estimates on lower guidance; encouraging KPIs, but Bodega recovery will take time

Equity Research

24 July 2026 | 3:16PM EDT

Wal-Mart de Mexico (WALMEX.MX): Revising estimates on lower

guidance; encouraging KPIs, but Bodega recovery will take time

While Walmex’s 2Q26 results were weak and management painted a still-muted Irma Sgarz

+1(212)357-3770 | irma.sgarz@gs.com

outlook for Mexican consumer demand into the back-half, we welcomed (1) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

management’s timely revision of guidance, thereby addressing an emerging investor Felipe Rached

concern and potential overhang, (2) management’s focus on operational self-help +55(11)3371-4587felipe.rached@gs.com|

initiatives, and (3) early signs of a recovery in Costa Rica. Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Gabriela Leme

The turnaround of weaker sales performance in the larger Bodega formats will likely +55(11)3372-3512gabriela.leme@gs.com|

take time, however, with management laying out key initiatives around pricing, Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

availability, assortment, private label and ecommerce, but cautioning that the

process would take 12-18 months to complete. We are encouraged by KPIs around

price gap & perception, availability, and private label penetration and look for

consistency in execution on these to lead to a gradual recovery in SSS growth for the

format.

We reduce our earnings estimates for 2026/27 by on average -5%, reflecting the

mid-point of the updated guidance for FXN sales growth and a slight (-16bp yoy)

EBITDA margin contraction in 2026E. While we recognize that scope for near-term

outperformance may be hampered by limited scope for a near-term revision to

estimates and uncertainty around timing for improved SSS growth, we believe these