Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Recap; Momentum and Upside Drivers Emerging, still Cautious on Delevering Story; Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Recap; Momentum and Upside Drivers Emerging, still Cautious on Delevering Story; Neutral

Equity Research

24 July 2026 | 4:10PM EDT

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Recap; Momentum and Upside Drivers

Emerging, still Cautious on Delevering Story; Neutral

CLF reported better than expected 2Q26 results with revenue and adj. EBITDA above Nick Cash

+1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com

consensus estimates as a result of better than expected realized pricing. While Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

EBTIDA guidance for 3Q26 was largely in-line with consensus, investors were focused

on 2 key upside drivers in 2027. 1) CLF highlighted Canada as an upside driver, which

has seen positive price increases q/q, +~$175/ton, and noted at current price levels

could result in ~$500mn incremental EBITDA upside in 2027. 2) CLF is set to begin

negotiations for certain fixed price contracts in 2027 which could also drive a

minimum of $500mn of incremental EBITDA in 2027. As a result, CLF noted the

potential to hit leverage targets in 2027 and begin delevering the balance sheet.

While we acknowledge both of these upside drivers, with repricing contracts as the

stickiest, our 2027 HRC forecasts and uncertainty on Canadian steel pricing post

June 2027 still leave us cautious. We remain Neutral rated and highlight further

takeaways within.

2Q26 results above consensus and 3Q26 guide in-line. CLF reported revenues of

$5.23bn slightly above GSe/Factset consensus of $5.11bn/$5.15bn and adj. EBITDA

of $286mn above GSe/Factset consensus of $269mn/$262mn as a result of ASPs

coming in better than expected, $1,124/ton reported vs. GSe/consensus of

$1,111/$1,109, despite slightly lower than expected volumes as pricing lags begin to

capture upside. CLF guided to $575mn in adj.