End of Week Market Intelligence: triple threat

Research evidence excerpt

End of Week Market Intelligence: triple threat

Equity Research

24 July 2026 | 3:34PM EDT

US stocks are edging higher Friday but still on pace for a modest loss for the week Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

(for the S&P 500 as of Friday at 12:00PM) as investors have been navigating new oil chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

and gas supply disruptions, a so-far less constructive earnings season (at least from a

Sarah Herr

stock reaction viewpoint) than we have grown accustomed to, and a flood of stock +1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

and bond supply that all create a triple headwind for stocks (perhaps) that have still Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

seen strong gains this year.

oil, earnings, and supply

Sometimes things come at you in threes, and this week was a bit of a 3 week. Here

are 3x3 things — oil, earnings, and supply — that got our attention this week.

First: Oil. Front-month Brent oil rose almost 10% this week to $96/bbl (and briefly

topped $100) as commodities are being buffered now by three supply disruptions as

Daan Struyven and Yulia Grigsby discuss in “Oil: New Upside Price Risks Amid Red Sea

Tensions,” including:

1. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz;

2. New disruptions to the Red Sea passage (an alternate route to the SoH); and

3. A further decline in Kazakhstan exports amid Russia-Ukraine escalation.

Rising oil prices create a headwind for big energy consumers, but they are also

creating a headwind for stock market valuations as 10-year US Treasury yields are

rising alongside oil prices as bond investors consider the inflation implications of a

prolonged energy crisis. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose about 10bp this week

to 4.66% and are now at the highest levels we have seen since the early days of the

Trump2 Administration.