Americas Banks: Regional: Key Takeaways from AXP and FHB earnings; updating EPS for FCNCA and HBAN post-EPS

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Banks: Regional: Key Takeaways from AXP and FHB earnings; updating EPS for FCNCA and HBAN post-EPS

Goldman Sachs Americas Banks: Regional

could re-rate back to 17.5x-18x as the market gets more comfortable with the outlook

for growth into 2027. As this happens, this company should remain one of the best

compounders in financials and shares should have strong upside form here.

Exhibit 1: AXP Guidance summary

2026 Guidance Table

AXP

2026 Medium / Long Term

- Expect card fee growth to pick up as year progresses, exiting year in high

teens from Platinum refresh impact

- Card and loan receivables are expected to grow in line with billed business -Anticipate billed business has to accelerate in order to reach 10%+

Spend / Loans

- After product refresh, anticipates increased engagement and spend growth aspirational revenue growth goal

- Starting Q4,portfolio sales impact spend growth around one percentage

point

- Expect EPS between $17.30 -$17.90

- Raising FY26 revenue growth guidance to 10%, driven by strong first-half

momentum across the business - Revenue growth 10%+

Revenue / EPS - Card fee growth expected to accelerate in Q3 and exit the year in the high - EPS: Mid-teens growth

teens

- Starting Q4 portfolio sales impact net interest income around 2.5

percentage points until lapped.

NII - NII projected to continue outpacing loan and receivable growth - There is a bit more margin expansion to come

- Marketing expected up around 10% year over year in the second half

- Expect OpEx to grow MSD

- VCE ratio to increase over time driven by investments in value prop and

- Operating expenses expected to grow MSD for full year

premiumization

Expenses - Investment in marketing capabilities have driven acquisition incentives to the