Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T): 1Q First Take; Conservative guidance; Wafer supply-demand tightness suggesting seller’s market ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T): 1Q First Take; Conservative guidance; Wafer supply-demand tightness suggesting seller’s market ahead

Goldman Sachs Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T)

capacity is becoming increasingly limited. Management also highlighted that some

semiconductor devices that cannot be sufficiently supplied using 300mm wafers are

migrating to smaller diameters, resulting in a sharp recovery in demand for legacy

wafers. Specifically, 200mm wafer shipments increased 14% QoQ, while 150mm

shipments rose 15% QoQ. This mirrors a phenomenon that has been typically observed

in the early stages of previous wafer upcycles, when 300mm supply-demand tightness

begins to emerge, and should be viewed positively for the broader wafer industry. In

addition, management noted that some Chinese local 200mm wafer manufacturers have

already begun implementing significant price increases.

One particular surprise was the rapid increase in demand for lower-grade

process-monitoring wafers, including monitor wafers and dummy wafers, which are not

directly used in production. Management indicated that even procurement from certain

Chinese local suppliers has become increasingly difficult, reinforcing the view that

supply-demand tightness is broadening across the market.

Against this backdrop, discussions on long-term agreements with device manufacturers

have begun. Contract durations vary by customer, although memory manufacturers

generally prefer longer-term arrangements. Mr. Todoroki also stressed that the company

remains cautious on new capacity additions, reflecting lessons learned from the

COVID-era long-term contracts, substantial increases in equipment, raw material, and

logistics costs, the possibility that greenfield project costs could exceed twice historical