Newmont Corp. (NEM): 2Q26 Beat; Rebounding production supports margin expansion/ongoing returns, with emerging projects upside; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Newmont Corp. (NEM): 2Q26 Beat; Rebounding production supports margin expansion/ongoing returns, with emerging projects upside; Buy

Goldman Sachs Newmont Corp. (NEM)

Key takeaways

n Earnings: NEM reported 2Q adjusted/underlying EBITDA of ~US$3.76bn, +6%/-3%

vs. GSe/consensus with lower opex offsetting slightly lower revenue on realised gold

pricing, and down 27% QoQ (on ~10% lower realised gold prices) but up 25% YoY

(on ~33% higher realised gold prices) taking 2Q EBITDA margins to ~61%

respectively (from ~71% in 1Q26). Adjusted/underlying NPAT of ~US$2.25bn was

ahead on lower D&A and tax (tax rates normalising vs. prior seasonality / impacts of

rising gold pricing). On a proportional basis (including non-consolidated equity

interests), we estimate NEM’s 2Q26 core EBITDA of ~US$4.1bn was up ~26% YoY,

where we forecast this growing from ~US$14.2bn in CY25 by ~17% to

~US$16.6bn in CY26E. See below for production performance.

n Balance sheet/capital management: NEM finished 2Q CY26 with reported net cash

including leases/adjustments improving to ~US$3.4bn (cash of ~US$9.0bn; net cash

excl leases of ~US$3.9bn), better than expectations on the above combined better

than expected working capital and tax impacts. A 2Q dividend payout of US26cps

was in-line with GSe/VA Consensus, with an additional ~US$1.7bn spent on the

buy-back from April-26, with ~US$4.3bn of the additional US$6bn buyback program

remaining though NEM intends to request additional approval from the board as the

current program approaches completion (NEM continues to target ~US$1bn net

cash +/- US$2bn, with a target minimum ~US$5bn cash on balance sheet, with

excess cashflow continuing to go to share repurchases in lieu of any competing

capital requirements in growth/M&A).