AEJ Week Ahead: China PMI, Korea IP, and GDP for Hong Kong and Taiwan

Research evidence excerpt

AEJ Week Ahead: China PMI, Korea IP, and GDP for Hong Kong and Taiwan

Economics Research

24 July 2026 | 7:21PM SGT

AEJ Week Ahead: China PMI, Korea IP, and GDP for Hong Kong and

Taiwan

Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include China’s Danny Suwanapruti

+65-6889-1987 |

PMI readings, real GDP data for Hong Kong and Taiwan, and South Korea’s industrial danny.suwanapruti@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

production. Below we summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases.

China

n China July PMIs (July 31, August 3 and 5): We expect the NBS manufacturing

PMI to be 49.9 in July, vs 50.3 in June. Although the seasonally adjusted Emerging

Industries PMI (EPMI) inched up in July, high-frequency indicators—such as steel

production—softened sequentially during the month. We expect the RatingDog

manufacturing PMI to decrease to 50.5 from 51.7 in June. The RatingDog

manufacturing PMI tends to have a higher sensitivity to export activity, and high

frequency indicators suggest that the export momentum weakened in July vs.

June, partly due to disruptions from Typhoon Bavi. We expect the NBS

non-manufacturing PMI to decline to 49.6 from 50.2 in June. Both the services

and construction PMIs are likely to decline due to adverse weather conditions—

summer heatwaves and heavy rainfall—which disrupted outdoor activities. We

also notice that over the past nine years, the NBS non-manufacturing PMI always

declined in July vs June, pointing to some residual seasonality in the data. Finally,

we expect the RatingDog services PMI to inch down to 53.9 from 54.1 in June.

Hong Kong

n Hong Kong Q2 real GDP (Jul 31): We forecast Hong Kong Q2 real GDP to grow

4.7% yoy (vs. 5.9% yoy in Q1). This implies a 1.2% qoq annualized decline in Q2

(vs.