REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward Update
UpdateM
RiskRisk RewardReward– West Pharmaceutical- West PharmaceuticalServices Inc. (WST.N) Services Inc. (WST.N)
Healthy Selection of Durable Themes Driving Topline but Valuation Rich
PRICE TARGET $365.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS
Our PT is based on a 25x EV/2027E EBITDA multiple, a premium to biologic enabling peers. WST holds a dominant position as the
We believe this is justified given market leading positions across product categories, larger global market leader in the containment and
skew to more attractive end markets, and margin upside opportunity. We also believe WST's delivery of injectable medicines, with an
generally solid track record warrants merit in the multiple. estimated 70-75% market share in high-
value elastomers for complex biologics. The
$380.42 company is uniquely positioned to benefit
Consensus Price Target Distribution $310.22 $447.00 from a number of trends in the healthcare
MS PT space, including the growth of GLP-1
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates injectables, the development of biologics
and biosimilars, and increasing regulatory
requirements such as Annex 1 in Europe. On
RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M) the margins front we see near term upside
from the resolution of the SmartDose
manufacturing processes and a broader mix
USD shift to HVP. However we view WST's
premium valuation prices in higher
performance expectations and could gate
600 upside.
$415.00(+16.74%)$415.00$415.00(+16.74%)(+16.74%) ProbProbProb (>415.00)~26.4%(>415.00)~26.4%(>415.00)~26.4%
450 Consensus Rating Distribution
$365.00(+2.68%)$365.00$365.00(+2.68%)(+2.68%)
$355.48$355.48$355.48 ProbProbProb (>365.00)~39.8%(>365.00)~39.8%(>365.00)~39.8% 95% Overweight
300 5% Equal-weight
0% Underweight
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