Déjà Vu: What Bund Yields Back to the Highs Means

Research evidence excerpt

Déjà Vu: What Bund Yields Back to the Highs Means

Idea

July 24, 2026 05:30 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuro Area Rates Strategy | Europe Luca Salford

Strategist

Déjà Vu: What Bund Yields Back Luca.Salford@morganstanley.comMaria Chiara Russo +44 20 7677-1337

Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

to the Highs Means Jasper Knyphausen

Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

10y Bund yields once again touched 3.20%, back to mid-May

levels, but we continue to think the focus remains on short-end

pricing rather than term premia. Going into the key Fed meeting

we show that 2y US rates, together with the energy complex,

help explain the behavior of 2y euro rates.

Key Takeaways

The market remains focussed on Middle East developments but we show that 2y

US rates help explain the behavior of 2y euro rates.

Market ECB pricing is high compared with our scenarios, but we do not expect

the relationship with energy prices to break down in the near term.

The non linear relationship between both 5s10s and 10s30s vs 2y residuals can

be exploited for selecting the optimal sector for steepeners.

The outlook for EGB spreads remains mixed and we are neutral on Italy. In core,

we are still overweight Ireland and Netherlands and underweight Austria and

Belgium.

Derivatives: spreads have behaved in line with expectations so far in July, with

modest widening in swap spreads up to RX, and RX-UB acting as a proxy for

10s30s.

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