Gecina (GFCP.PA): A dislocation most likely to resolve to the upside

Research evidence excerpt

Gecina (GFCP.PA): A dislocation most likely to resolve to the upside

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24 Jul 2026 11:38:20 ET │ 22 pages

Gecina (GFCP.PA)

A dislocation most likely to resolve to the upside

CITI'S TAKE

We reiterate our Buy rating and update estimates on Gecina following

strong H1 results that confirm a positive in rental growth for its prime Paris

office portfolio. The stock offers a rare public-to-private market valuation Buy

arbitrage, trading at a deep discount to NAV relative to the positive strength Price (23 Jul 26 17:30) €75.35

of the Paris office rental market and as the real estate cycle moves past its

trough. We believe Gecina is well-positioned to benefit from office market Target price €109.00↓

polarization and growing demand from Paris’s emergence as an AI hub. from €118.00

While we trim our price target to €109 to reflect temporary investment Expected share price return 44.7%market softness caused by the Middle East conflict, our estimates remain

significantly above consensus. We expect a resumption of the growth cycle Expected dividend yield 7.4%

to drive substantial share price upside, with an attractive dividend yield Expected total return 52.1%

providing strong downside support. Market Cap €5,786M

US$6,583MRobust office market — We reiterate our Buy rating following H1 results and

estimate review. Gecina confirmed its 2026 recurrent net income per share guidance

of €6.70-€6.75 (Citi: €6.73 with Citi EPRA EPS est. €6.59), supported by solid like-

for-like rental growth of 2% with development deliveries expected to grow in future

years. Office rents in central Paris grew 3.4% and residential rents increased 7.6%, Price Performance

demonstrating robust demand. High occupancy was maintained across the (RIC: GFCP.PA, BB: GFC FP)