Australia Banks: August Results Preview: Slowdown unlikely to be evident in the June quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Banks: August Results Preview: Slowdown unlikely to be evident in the June quarter

Equity Research

24 July 2026 | 3:40PM AEST

Australia Banks: August Results Preview — Slowdown unlikely to be

evident in the June quarter

Our take: The recent rally in Australian bank stocks (+6% vs flat ASX 200) has Brendan Sproules

+61(3)9679-1276 |

surprised many, revealing a growing disconnect between negative market sentiment brendan.sproules@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

and robust earnings fundamentals. While investors have feared that RBA rate hikes

Rushil Vaghani

and Federal Budget tax reforms would weaken the sector, the recent data shows +61(3)9679-1458 |

resilient lending volumes and margin stability. The anticipated cliff in asset quality rushil.vaghani@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

and credit demand has yet to materialize, suggesting the market may be misjudging

the timing of the cycle. WBC appears well-positioned for a revenue surprise in 3Q26,

despite a volatile first half which saw an ~A$300m revenue headwind. Rising yields

on low-cost deposits and replicating portfolios are expected to drive NIMs higher.

Similarly, concerns regarding NAB’s asset quality appear overstated. Unlike

specialized lenders, NAB’s business portfolio is 73% fully secured, and improving

private-sector GDP growth provides a healthy backdrop for borrowers, with credit

costs expected to decline to 16bpts in 2H26, from 18bpts in 1H26. Meanwhile, ANZ

continues to demonstrate exceptional cost discipline under its 2030 Vision, with

costs expected to decline 5% in FY26, providing a critical buffer for earnings.

Although a transition toward an investment cycle is expected by FY27, near-term

productivity gains remain a potential catalyst. Ultimately, with credit growth