Financials & valuation: SpaceX

Research evidence excerpt

Financials & valuation: SpaceX

Disruptive Technology ● Equities

July 2026

Financials & valuation: SpaceX Hold

Financial statements Key forecast drivers

Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

Profit & loss summary (USDm) Space revenues 4,086 3,757 4,970 5,680

Connectivity revenues 11,387 15,551 21,903 28,822Revenue 18,674 38,208 49,783 62,272

AI revenues 3,201 18,901 22,454 27,222EBITDA 4,112 15,426 22,728 33,671

Space Adj EBITDA 653 -740 883 1,641Depreciation & amortisation -6,701 -15,612 -24,194 -32,187

Connectivity Adj EBITDA 7,168 10,089 14,626 19,864Operating profit/EBIT -2,589 -186 -1,465 1,484

AI Adj EBITDA -1,237 9,541 12,589 17,518Net interest -1,630 -3,040 -883 -958

PBT -4,219 -3,226 -2,348 526

HSBC PBT -1,747 238 3,022 5,877

Taxation -718 -184 399 -89 Valuation data

Net profit -4,937 -4,080 -1,949 436 Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC net profit -2,465 -617 3,421 5,787 EV/sales 81.0 38.8 30.3 24.6

Cash flow summary (USDm) EV/EBITDA 368.0 96.1 66.4 45.5

Cash flow from operations 6,785 14,708 28,240 38,498 EV/IC 93.5 9.5 7.4 6.6

Capex -20,737 -68,587 -53,847 -59,109 PE* nm nm 440.4 260.3

Cash flow from investment -19,575 -75,204 -53,847 -59,109 PB 8.2 6.8 7.4 7.2

Dividends 0 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -0.9 -3.6 -1.7 -1.4

Change in net debt -3,459 -30,702 26,477 21,521 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FCF equity -14,247 -53,962 -25,607 -20,612 * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)

Balance sheet summary (USDm)

Intangible fixed assets 15,628 75,830 76,230 76,140

Tangible fixed assets 43,862 100,371 149,625 176,547 ESG metrics

Current assets 30,952 101,964 55,197 36,714 Environmental Indicators 12/2025a Governance Indicators 12/2025a

Cash & others 24,747 87,818 41,316 19,795 GHG emission intensity* n/a No.