Next steps for US tariffs

Research evidence excerpt

Next steps for US tariffs

m digital trade and electronic payment services to preferential tariffs offered to other

partners that disadvantage the US to anti‑corruption enforcement, IP protection, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation.

However, these new tariffs exempt top Brazilian exports such as crude oil, coffee and beef, which together account for 20% of US

imports from the country, as well as products already subject to Section 232 duties.

Could new tariffs be subject to legal challenge? Duties imposed under Section 301 are less likely to be susceptible to legal

challenge than IEEPA tariffs because Section 301 tariffs require a formal investigative process before duties are imposed. Section

301 requires the USTR to conduct a formal investigation, gather evidence and hold public hearings before proposing tariffs –

enabling stakeholders to shape potential tariff actions and ultimately providing a more solid justification for new duties. Indeed, the

Section 301 tariffs on China that were implemented under the first Trump administration (and are still in effect today) have never

been challenged successfully in US courts.

On the other hand, some trade lawyers think the Section 338 tariffs on Canada will be challenged, and it is unclear whether the US

International Trade Commission needs to conduct a formal investigation before such tariffs are imposed (Politico, 20 July 2026 and

CRS, 19 March 2026).

As at the time of writing, nearly USD100bn worth of IEEPA tariffs have been refunded (including interest) since the beginning of May

2026.

What are the potential macro impacts? With effective tariff rates unlikely to rise materially, and despite any near-term volatility that