Intel Corp (INTC US): Buy: Another beat & raise; enhanced foundry confidence

Research evidence excerpt

Intel Corp (INTC US): Buy: Another beat & raise; enhanced foundry confidence

rver CPU would likely to continue

to surprise the market on the upside not only for FY26e but also going into FY27e as 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

our FY27e server CPU revenue y-o-y growth of 43% remained above consensus 230.00

expectations of 22% while our 2027 DCAI revenue estimate of USD36.7bn is 29%

115.00

above consensus estimates of USD28.5bn. Intel GM also continues to surprise on

the upside, which we attribute to upside potential in CPU ASPs as well as improving 07/25 01/26 07/260.00

18A ramp-up as our FY27e GM of 45.3% remains above consensus of 42.6%. Target price: 200.00

High: 140.94 Low: 19.31 Current: 100.23

Increasing foundry confidence supported by an aggressive CAPEX revision: Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Intel’s tone on foundry was increasingly confident, both for internal capacity allocation

as well as external clients. This supports our view of improving foundry narrative that Frank Lee*

Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi Research

it is difficult to ignore. Intel raised its FY26e CAPEX to >USD20bn from previous The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

guidance of USD17.7bn (with tool spending up 40% y-o-y) vs consensus estimate of frank.lee@hsbc.com.hk

USD15bn. Intel expects FY27e capex to increase further, implying upside to +852 2996 6916

HSBCe/consensus of USD18.8bn/USD17.0bn. Therefore, we raise our 2027e/2028e Pulkit Aggarwal*

Associate

capex to USD25.1bn/USD30.1bn. Intel also highlighted risk production of Intel 18A-P Bangalore

as well as high volume ramp-up with Intel 14A in 2028, further supporting our view on

the external client order timeline. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is