2Q26 Earnings: 2Q Miss, Raises the Bar for a Sharper 2H Ramp

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings: 2Q Miss, Raises the Bar for a Sharper 2H Ramp

Update

July 24, 2026 08:15 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSLM Corp | North America Jeffrey Adelson, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Earnings: 2Q Miss, Raises Jeff.Adelson@morganstanley.comJoseph Leeman +1 212 761-1761

Research Associate

Joseph.Leeman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4381

the Bar for a Sharper 2H Ramp

SLM Corp (SLM.O, SLM US)

Consumer Finance | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged Meaningful shortfall Largely unchanged Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target $28.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 23, 2026) $24.18

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $4,588

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range $33.50-17.77

NIM fell a sharp 54bp to 4.75%, NCO +74bp to 2.95% (on 3rd-

party debt resolution issue), no new partnership announced.

Unchanged EPS guide implies sharper 2H ramp vs consensus,

but now becomes more of a “show me.” Positives? Slowing DQs

could support results from here, including sharper 2H EPS ramp.

NIM pressure worse than expected

• NIM of 4.75% declined a sharp 54bps sequentially; we estimate about ⅔ of

this came on an increase in excess liquidity, and the other ⅓ coming from

student loan yields down 21bps q/q to 10.25%.

• Liquidity-driven NIM pressure was already telegraphed by management,

generated from last quarter's large $3.3bn of loan sales (traditional + KKR

partnership). Excess liquidity is also required ahead of peak originations in

3Q, which should be the largest quarter of originations in the company's

history in light of the new Grad/Parent opportunity.

• Still, the excess liquidity pressure was higher than we expected. Further, the