F3/27 1H and Full-year Guidance Hikes: First Impression Minor Positive, but Potentially Seen as End of Good News

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1H and Full-year Guidance Hikes: First Impression Minor Positive, but Potentially Seen as End of Good News

Update

July 24, 2026 08:36 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MKawasaki Kisen (9107) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1H and Full-year Guidance Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Hikes: First Impression Minor

Positive, but Potentially Seen as

End of Good News

Kawasaki Kisen (9107.T, 9107 JT)

Marine Transportation | Japan

On Jul 24 post-close, Kawasaki Kisen hiked its F3/27 1H and full-year RP guidance,

Stock Rating Underweight

from ¥35bn to ¥80bn for 1H (+¥45bn), and from ¥100bn to ¥135bn for the full-year Industry View Cautious

(+¥35bn). The company's press release noted that projected upside in the Dry Bulk Price target ¥1,320

Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) ¥2,806

business and at Ocean Network Express (ONE) was the main factor behind the Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,773.7

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥12.7

upward revisions. Details will not be clear until the results release on Aug 4. Our

first impression is slightly positive. 1) Upside to F3/27 1H guidance was already

factored into both our estimates and the IFIS consensus, but the size of the hike was

greater than anticipated, leaving a positive impression. We attribute the difference

with our forecast primarily to ONE (assuming upside in freight rates). 2) However,

RP guidance for F3/27 2H has been revised down by ¥10bn, and we believe ONE is

again the main factor behind this. 3) We think peer firms Nippon Yusen and Mitsui

O.S.K. Lines are also likely to announce upward revisions exceeding market

expectations. 4) However, with container spot rates showing signs of peaking out,