Container Spot Rates (CCFI) Out of China (July 17): Caught Between Fundamentals (Negative) & Effects of Geopolitical Risk (Positive)

Research evidence excerpt

Container Spot Rates (CCFI) Out of China (July 17): Caught Between Fundamentals (Negative) & Effects of Geopolitical Risk (Positive)

Update

July 20, 2026 10:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMarine Transportation | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Container Spot Rates (CCFI) Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Out of China (July 17): Caught

Between Fundamentals

(Negative) & Effects of Marine Transportation

Japan

Industry View CautiousGeopolitical Risk (Positive)

Related reports:

Orient Overseas (International) Ltd 2Q26: Likely

Key Takeaways

Wider ASP Hikes vs. Unit Cost Inflation (13 Jul

CCFI rates rose 5.3% WoW on North America routes and 1.4% WoW on Europe 2026)

routes. Investor Presentation: Japan Summer School:

Leading-indicator SCFI rates -3.8% on N. America routes and -2.7% on Europe Japan Transportation (13 Jul 2026)

routes were both down WoW for a 2nd consecutive week. Marine Transportation Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd

Plan to Revert Gemini AE15 Service from Cape The Drewry World Container Index on Jul 16 also fell WoW for the 1st time in 11

of Good Hope Routing Back to Suez Canal/Red weeks amid a growing sense of spot rates having peaked out.

Sea Route (6 Jul 2026)

From the fundamentals angle we see near-term negatives for share prices

Marine Transportation: F3/27 1Q Results Focus

including a sense of an end to good news with F3/27 1Q results and of container

Points (6 Jul 2026)

spot rates peaking out.

Marine Transportation: Main Variance Between

Conversely, we view further heightening of geopolitical risk including reigniting Our Forecasts and Consensus is Likely

Middle East tensions as positive for share prices near term.