Marine Transportation | Japan F3/27 1Q Results Focus Points

Research evidence excerpt

Marine Transportation | Japan F3/27 1Q Results Focus Points

Idea

July 6, 2026 11:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMarine Transportation | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results Focus Points Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Tug-of-war between expectations for 1Q earnings beat and full-

year RP upgrade, and concerns over peak-out in spot rates. Any

signs of weak spot rates would be negative; we maintain sell-on-

strength stance. Only expect additional return measures at

Nippon Yusen (¥110bn buybacks) during 1Q results. Marine Transportation

Japan

The Big 3 shippers release F3/27 1Q results on Aug 4 (Kawasaki Kisen), Aug 5 Industry View Cautious

(Nippon Yusen) and Aug 7 (Mitsui OSK). We still think the biggest focus is earnings

outlook for containership businesses with high profit volatility Related reports:

Nippon Yusen: Nikkei Report: If Accurate, Initial

F3/27 1Q results focus points: 1) Expect F3/27 1Q RP guidance beat: We expect all

Impression is that Possibility of Further

three companies to beat F3/27 1Q RP guidance (we forecast a 32% YoY RP decline),

Enhancement in Shareholder Returns Beyond

driven by container spot rates above guidance, Middle East impact being smaller

the Current Mid-Term Plan Seems Low (1 Jul

than initially expected, and yen weakness. 2) We expect full-year RP guidance to

2026)

be raised, as 1H RP is also likely to exceed plan even if 2H plans are left unchanged.

Marine Transportation: Implications of AP

However, we are concerned about a significant earnings shortfall in the container

Moeller - Maersk's Upward Revision to Full-year

shipping business in F3/27 2H and forecast earnings to ultimately come in below the