BYD (1211.HK) Fundamentals vs Fund-Flow Dashboard

Research evidence excerpt

BYD (1211.HK) Fundamentals vs Fund-Flow Dashboard

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24 Jul 2026 04:58:28 ET │ 12 pages

BYD (1211.HK)

Fundamentals vs Fund-Flow Dashboard

CITI'S TAKE

Buy BYD's share price, which historically tracks its fundamentals closely,

appeared to have decoupled from underlying fundamentals between April Price (23 Jul 26 16:10) HK$88.65

and late June 2026 — driven, in our view, by AI-driven fund flow Target price HK$142.00

disruptions, tariff-related sentiment noise, and soft China domestic NEV Expected share price 60.2% demand. To objectively measure fundamentals momentum independent return

of market noise, we have developed a ‘BYD Weighted-Fundamental Expected dividend yield 1.7%

Index’, assigning weights of 40%/25%/20%/10%/5% to BYD export MoM Expected total return 61.9%

movements/orders/domestic market share/sector NEV YoY

Market Cap HK$808,240M trend/inventory levels, where a positive reading (>0) signals improving

US$103,076M fundamentals and is historically constructive for share price appreciation

(Mar-2026 as shown in Figure 1). Despite the index remaining consistently

positive throughout April–June 2026, BYD's share price declined — an

anomaly we attribute to AI fund flows working against the stock (Figure 2); Jeff ChungAC

and the gap between price and fund flow positioning has been visibly +852-2501-2787

narrowing and appears poised to reverse in July, in our view. jeff.m.chung@citi.com

Kyle Wu

Constructive fundamental view and Buy on BYD: Our Jul-2026 ‘BYD Weighted- +852-2501-8483

Fundamental Index’ stands at +0.07, underpinned by assumed inputs of BYD kyle.wu@citi.com

inventory -3% MoM, BYD export +5% MoM, sector NEV -5% YoY, BYD orders +15%

MoM, and BYD wholesales -13% MoM, reinforcing our constructive fundamental

view and Buy rating.