China Autos Export Tracker: Q2 2026 +79% yoy – Momentum remains strong, EVs now account for over half of exports

Research evidence excerpt

China Autos Export Tracker: Q2 2026 +79% yoy – Momentum remains strong, EVs now account for over half of exports

3 August 2026

Asian Autos

China Autos Export Tracker: Q2 2026 +79% yoy — Momentum

remains strong, EVs now account for over half of exports

Chinese auto exports accelerated further in Q2 2026: New passenger vehicle export Eunice Lee, CFA

+852 2123 2606 volume from China reached 2.51mn units, +79% yoy, compared to +64% in Q1 2026

eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com and +43% in Q4 2025. Exports accounted for 37.0% of wholesale volume, up from 19.7%

in Q2 2025 and 32.4% in Q1 2026.

Ethan Xu

+852 2123 2634 EVs accounted for 54% of exports, comprising 33% BEV and 22% PHEV. ICE exports saw ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com

robust growth, but EV exports continued to outpace ICE: in Q2 2026, ICE exports rose 41%

yoy, while BEV exports climbed 106% and PHEV exports surged 182% yoy. With gasoline

prices remaining at higher levels, and the availability of more price competitive EV offerings

from Chinese OEMs, we remain constructive on EV adoption and Chinese EV export potential.

The EU is currently mulling countervailing tariffs on Chinese PHEVs (Link). PHEVs have

been the fastest-growing segment. In Q2, 40% of Chinese PHEV exports are destined for

Europe, with roughly 29% going to the EU. In June, 35% of the PHEV exports went to the EU.

The clear acceleration in shipment is likely driven by OEMs bringing forward shipments ahead

of potential EU tariffs, in addition to demand. In our view, if tariffs are implemented, they may

cause a brief disruption as inventories are absorbed, but the opportunity remains intact given

Chinese PHEVs’ technological superiority and cost competitiveness, and the stronger profit

pool in Europe relative to China.