Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW): Reduce: Strong execution, stretched valuation

Research evidence excerpt

Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW): Reduce: Strong execution, stretched valuation

.5 40.8 38.7

with >30 new contracts (c300,000 sqm) underway largely driven by Hyperscalers.

52-WEEK PRICE (CHF)

Integrated AI: savings from productivity uplift from 2027: K+N is pivoting from pilots

to scaled execution. Management targets at least 5% operational productivity uplift, 220.00

equivalent to annualised gross savings of CHF100-150m (c9% of midpoint of FY26 EBIT 180.00

guidance) by end-2027 (on 1H26 cost base), although the net EBIT benefit will depend

140.00

on AI service costs. Initial deployment targets 25,000+ white-collar FTE (c23% of group), 07/25 01/26 07/26

mainly across Sea & Air Logistics plus functional units (sales, finance, IT and HR), Target price: 180.00 High: 210.60 Low: 148.15 Current: 204.40

representing CHF1.7bn cost base (c35% of staff costs). Management noted preference Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

to grow without expanding the cost base rather merely chasing savings.

We lift our 2026-28 recurring EBIT forecasts by 6-8%: Our 2026e EBIT of Parash Jain*

Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

CHF1,530m sits just shy of the top end of K+N’s guidance range, driven by higher The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Air Logistics and a stronger Road contribution. We model 3Q26 recurring EBIT up 43% parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

y-o-y (off a low base) and 7% q-o-q. +852 2996 6717

Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Reiterate Reduce but raised DCF-based TP to CHF180 (from CHF175) on higher Analyst, Asia Transport

estimates. Disruptions continue to support near-term earnings, but we stay cautious The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

beyond peak season and note Contract Logistics ramp-up costs. The stock now trades +852 2822 4292