Americas Capital Markets: NDAQ and AMP EPS Wrap Up

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Capital Markets: NDAQ and AMP EPS Wrap Up

Goldman Sachs Americas Capital Markets

payments. Management noted that recruiting packages across the industry are

largely uneconomical, with cash payback periods up to 8 years, well beyond what it

sees as an attractive risk/reward. While attrition likely stays elevated for a few

quarters given AMP’s more disciplined approach, management re-affirmed that

growth across existing advisor businesses remains the largest component of NNA.

That said, given the recruiting environment, we see risks to AMP’s 4%-5% target and

expect NNA to remain in the ~2% range.

o Comerica/HBAN: Management noted that the departure of Comerica

advisors accelerated in the quarter relative to 1Q and continues to expect the

remainder of the assets to depart by 3Q26. AMP also provided detail on its

HBAN win which will come online with $28bn of assets (~$700mn in cash) in

4Q26/1Q27. AMP noted it will receive the full book economics starting in 4Q,

though timing of assets being onboarded will be split over those two quarters

(weighted towards 4Q).

n Cash balance trajectory: Cash revenues were $403mn in 2Q, down slightly from

2Q25 and 1Q26 levels. Total brokerage and certificate balances decreased 2% q/q,

including a ~2% sequential decline in both core cash and lower certificates balances.

Management noted that cash balances saw a typical 2Q seasonal decline related to

tax payments and certificate balances are starting to see some stabilization.

n Capital return: AMP repurchased $774mn of shares during 2Q, driving a 91%

payout rate. Management sees share repurchases as an attractive use of capital

given current stock levels and continues to expect the payout ratio to be towards the

higher end of 85%-90% target (including dividends) in the near term.