Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research

23 July 2026 | 5:36PM EDT

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan

+1(212)357-7504 |

allison.nathan@gs.com

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Jenny Grimberg

Changes to flag this week: +1(212)934-0199 | jenny.grimberg@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Raised our Bal3Q26/4Q26 TTF natural gas price forecasts to €60/53/MWh (from Ashley Rhodes

€41/40/MWh) as we now assume a delayed normalization of Persian Gulf LNG +1(212)934-4876ashley.rhodes@gs.com|

exports amid the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Watching

n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% yoy in 2026 amid lingering

headwinds from the rise in energy prices from the Iran conflict. We expect global

core inflation to end the year at 2.8%, reflecting a fading tariff boost and further

normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from energy price

passthrough.

n In the US, we expect moderate real GDP growth of 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis in

2026, reflecting still-subdued consumer spending growth but a boost from the

AI boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex. We expect core PCE

inflation of 2.9% in December 2026 given the effects of tariffs, energy price

passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling

closer to 2% in 2027 as those effects subside. We expect the unemployment rate

to end 2026 at 4.4%.

n We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest

of 2026.

n In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth to remain below potential in 2026,

reflecting a resilient dataflow for now but ongoing headwinds from elevated

energy prices and still subdued consumer confidence.