GVS (GVS.MI): Moderated growth expectations on lower LVP forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

GVS (GVS.MI): Moderated growth expectations on lower LVP forecasts

Equity Research

23 July 2026 | 6:38PM BST

We reiterate our Buy rating on GVS, with an unchanged TP of €4.70 that implies Christian Hinderaker, CFA

+44(20)7774-7366 |

+7% upside. Our new estimates reflect Capex tracker and S&P LVP updates, the christian.hinderaker@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

latest FX, and the resolution of the recent tender offer. With the stock offering >25%

Hollie Cooper

EBITDA margins and MSD growth on our estimates, we remain Buy rated, arguing +44(20)7051-0956 |

that structural cost actions provide an improved margin base ahead of a potential hollie.cooper@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

recovery in growth: Following a FY22-25 OSG CAGR of just +0.4%, we forecast +3.7%

FY26 OSG, accelerating to a +5.6% OSG CAGR over FY25-30E.

Estimate changes: For 2Q26/FY26E, we lower our OSG by -80bps/-50bps

respectively. This is driven predominantly by slower than expected growth within the

E&M and Safety segments at 1Q26 results, so we expect a steadier recovery within

these areas. We update our longer-term forecasts to reflect the latest Capex Tracker

and S&P LVP updates. The recent Healthcare Capex Tracker changes drive moderate

increases to our H&LS forecasts, where we now expect a +9.6% OSG CAGR over

FY25-30E. The latest S&P LVP expectations suggest continued slow growth, and a

protracted recovery in E&M where we lower FY26/27 forecasts and raise our

FY28-30 estimate. On margins, we lower our 2Q26 forecasts by -10bps following

some early signs of raw material inflation at 1Q26 results. We expect the group to

pass these costs through but see potential for some short-term price/cost

headwinds in 2Q26. As a result of these estimate changes and the resolution of the