All are not equal: The Emerging Markets Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

All are not equal: The Emerging Markets Weekly

FICC Research

EM Strategy

24 July 2026

Weekly Markets View

All are not equal

The re-escalation of the Iran war has brought divergences

between oil exporters and importers back into focus.

However, many EM assets vulnerable to higher oil have so far Michael Kafe +44 (0) 20 7773 3533

been relatively resilient, with technicals and other drivers of michael.kafe@barclays.com

risk sentiment, such as equities, providing additional Barclays, UK

impulses. Fabian+44 (0)20Herold7773 0753

fabian.herold@barclays.com

EM Credit: When history doesn't repeat, but rhymes Barclays, UK

• The re-escalation of the Iran war, and the surge in oil prices, has brought the divide between Badr El Moutawakil

oil exporters and importers back into the spotlight. However, compared with March, the +1 212 526 8907

spreads of most importers have been relatively resilient so far. badr.elmoutawakil@barclays.com

BCI, US

• The rise in oil prices has also pushed core rates higher and has led to cash spreads mostly Mitul Kotecha

outperforming CDS. This has been particularly pronounced in oil exporters, while for some oil + 65 6308 5439

importers, the reverse has actually been the case, suggesting that the cash market is more mitul.kotecha@barclays.com

sensitive to the oil exporter/importer divide than the CDS market at present. Barclays Bank, Singapore

Audrey Ong

EM Local & FX: Between oil and equities

+ 65 6308 5637

• Our analysis suggests that the recent rise in oil prices has so far had a relatively modest audreysz.ong@barclays.com

impact on EM FX. Within Asia, PHP, THB and INR have shown the greatest sensitivity to the Barclays Bank, Singapore

recent rise in oil prices. Oil has exerted a much larger influence on 1y1y rates across most EMs