ReportGem ReportGem 中文

REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH

Not as Clear as it Seemed

Published: 2026-07-24Institution: Morgan StanleyPages: 12Original language: EnglishEvidence page: 1

Research evidence excerpt

Not as Clear as it Seemed

Update

July 24, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Not as Clear as it Seemed Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc +27 11 587-0820

Georgi Deyanov

The bar for another rate increase in South Africa is higher than EconomistGeorgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7006

we had assumed. We expect the policy rate to remain at 7% for Yomna Moheieldin

an extended period and move our first cut to May 2027. In the Economist

Yomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

week ahead, we have growth and inflation data in CEE.

If you value our CEEMEA research and events, please vote us five stars in the

2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll. You can find us in Emerging

EMEA>Economics category. Click here to request your ballot.

Recent Research Highlights

South Africa | An unusual surprise: There are very few occasions when market

CEEMEA Macro Focus: Divergence into Summer

participants get caught off-guard by a SARB policy rate decision. Yesterday was one

South Africa: SARB Preview: A Divided Hike &

such occasion: Market consensus was overwhelmingly of the view that a 25bp

Steeper Curve

increase would be delivered… actually, the MPC kept rates on hold:

Hungary: NBH Preview: Reducing Tightness

• The SARB's near term inflation forecasts were revised lower, as expected. South Africa: London Trip Notes: Investors Think

The committee does however acknowledge that inflation risks are skewed to We're Early

the upside with "most [services] components now well above 3%". Egypt: CBE Review: Cautious Hold Maintained

Furthermore, these forecasts have not taken into consideration the Jun-26 Poland: NBP Review: On the Sidelines

The English excerpt is extracted automatically from the cited source page and may contain layout or recognition errors. It is never batch translated.

Open report viewer