July FOMC Preview: Patient, not out of patience

Research evidence excerpt

July FOMC Preview: Patient, not out of patience

Idea

July 24, 2026 02:39 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFederal Reserve Monitor | North America Michael T Gapen

Chief US Economist

July FOMC Preview: Patient, not Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.comMatthew Hornbach +1 212 761-0571

Strategist

Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837

out of patience Jay Bacow

Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2647

Despite higher oil prices, other incoming data point to a Fed on Sam D Coffin

hold in July. That said, the Fed is running out of patience for EconomistSam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630

above-target inflation. Inflation has to perform in the coming Diego Anzoategui

months – we think it will – or the Fed will switch to hikes later EconomistDiego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573

this year. Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

Heather Berger

Economist

Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296

Key expectations Lingdi Xu

• We expect the Fed to stay on hold in July, keeping the target range Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

for the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. We expect disinflation to Martin W Tobias, CFA

keep the Fed on hold this year. Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076

Andrew M Watrous

• Despite the rebound in oil prices, other data points to patience.

Employment growth has slowed and evidence of disinflation has Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287

emerged. The case to hike in June was stronger, in our view. Mark T Schmidt, CFA

• That said, at some point the Fed will run out of patience and repeated Mark.Schmidt1@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8702

Shaun Zhou commitments to achieve price stability need to be followed by action.