Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Strong Earnings and 2026 Grasberg Ramp on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Strong Earnings and 2026 Grasberg Ramp on Track

Equity Research

23 July 2026 | 9:33AM EDT

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Strong

Earnings and 2026 Grasberg Ramp on Track

Key stock takeaways. We expect the market to have a muted reaction to FCX’s Nick Cash

+1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com

2Q26 results on the back of a solid quarter where the company’s Grasberg Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

production came in better than anticipated reaching 69kt/d in June. Furthermore,

FCX reiterated Grasberg production guidance of 800mn lbs which is higher than

GSe/VisibleAlpha consensus of 733mn/737mn lbs. While we view the quarter and

the 2026 Grasberg production ramp as a positive, we believe investors will need

more clarity on a few key items such as 1) 2028 reduction to Grasberg production 2)

Lower leaching results q/q, 3) Progression on Bagdad investment decision. That said,

we expect investors to focus on the company’s revisions of longer-term Grasberg

production.

Guidance updates. For 2026, FCX incrementally reduced cash cost guidance by

($0.05). 2026, Grasberg copper and gold production were reiterated but FCX

reduced 2028 Grasberg copper production by (100mn lbs) and gold by (200k oz).

There was no change to 2026 copper or gold sales estimates but moly sales guidance

increased by 3mn lbs to 93mn lbs (vs. 90mn prior). On capex, FCX increased 2027

capex increased to $4.8bn vs. $4.5bn with ~$100mn incremental capex for Bagdad

and ~$100mn incremental capex for Grasberg energy transition and other. CFO

guidance reduced by ($0.4bn) to $8.3bn vs. $8.7bn prior as the company reduced

the base case gold price in the deck to $4,000/oz (vs. $4,500/oz prior).

Leaching production in 2Q26 came in at 47mn lbs vs.