Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Research evidence excerpt

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Goldman Sachs Market Intelligence

(broader inflation, rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates) is weighing on

consumer demand, and we estimate the median household can afford 30% less square

footage today vs 2019 across the top 50 metros. Favor Buy-rated DHI and MTH. Turning

to earnings, results from both DHI and Neutral-rated PHM emphasized builders’ ability

to execute, despite demand headwinds. DHI: Raise 12m price target to $190 (from

($186). PHM: Raise 12m price target to $146 (from $143).

Aerospace & Defense, Poponak/Burgess: 2026 Farnborough Air Show takeaways.

The 2026 Farnborough Air Show reinforced our constructive industry outlook as

commercial aerospace demand remains robust, with Buy-rated BA and Airbus both

announcing large orders. In the aftermarket, suppliers highlighted continued strength in

units and pricing. Finally, airlines are maintaining activity levels, despite volatility in the

fuel prices.

Canadian Oil, Mehta: Updating Select Canada Oil Estimates and Raising Cenovus

(Buy) Price Target Amid FCF Inflection.

Refining, Mehta/Petrick Breno: What We Are Focused On Into Earnings for PBF, DK,

CVI and PARR; Favor Delek.

Buy CVE as West White Rose remains on track for first oil by end of 3Q26, driving volume

and free cash flow inflection through 2028 with ~37% total return from current levels.

Look for it to achieve its next net debt target earlier than anticipated. Raise 12m price

target to $39 (from $36). Separately, focus on margins, small refinery exemptions (SREs)

and RIN prices, operational execution, and capital allocation into 2Q26 earnings. Favor:

Buy-rated DK.

Notable Research not on the Morning Call:

MACRO

n Top of Mind, Nathan: IPO surge: a red flag for markets?