Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Earnings Beat and Momentum Accelerating

Research evidence excerpt

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Earnings Beat and Momentum Accelerating

Equity Research

23 July 2026 | 7:05AM EDT

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF): 2Q26 Earnings First Take; Earnings Beat and

Momentum Accelerating

Key takeaways. We expect the market to have a positive initial reaction to CLF’s Nick Cash

+1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com

2Q26 earnings release today. CLF reported a top and bottom-line beat and issued Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

3Q26 guidance in-line with GS/FactSet consensus estimates. Despite volumes

coming in lighter than expected, down (83k) tons q/q vs. expectations of a

sequential increase, pricing was much stronger than anticipated, up $76/t q/q vs.

~$60/t guide. We expect the market to focus on the positive pricing momentum

heading into 3Q26 where higher volumes and utilization is also expected.

2Q26 results beat. CLF reported revenues of $5.2bn vs. GSe/FactSet consensus of

$5.11bn/$5.15bn and adj. EBITDA of $286mn vs. GSe/FactSet consensus of

$269mn/$262mn resulting in EBITDA margins of 5.5% which were above

expectations. Additionally, CLF generated $73mn in FCF this quarter.

3Q26 guide positive. CLF guided to adj. EBITDA of $575mn in 3Q26, slightly above

GSe/FactSet consensus estimates of $566mn/$572mn. CLF guided to +300k tons

improvement in volumes, +$55/t increase in ASPs and a ($10/ton) decrease in unit

costs.

We expect investors will be focused on additional color around 1) Levels of FCF

generation in 2H26; 2) Upside to renegotiation of fixed price contracts in 2027, 3)

Market share capture and volumes into the end of the year, 4) Canadian HRC prices

and demand environment, 5) Status of POSCO negotiations and reduction of

leverage.

Price target and key risks. Our 12-mo price target of $10 is based on an 85%