Dow Inc. (DOW): 2Q results above consensus but 3Q guide below; 2H outlook commentary implies focus on the controllables

Research evidence excerpt

Dow Inc. (DOW): 2Q results above consensus but 3Q guide below; 2H outlook commentary implies focus on the controllables

Equity Research

23 July 2026 | 7:22AM EDT

Dow Inc. (DOW): 2Q results above consensus but 3Q guide below; 2H

outlook commentary implies focus on the controllables

1) 2Q results: DOW (Neutral) reported 2Q26 sales/operating EBITDA of Duffy Fischer

+1(212)902-0099 |

$12,092mn/$2,312mn versus Bloomberg consensus of $11,921mn/$2,226mn and duffy.fischer@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

year ago $10,104mn/$703mn. Key drivers in the quarter were local price (up 20%

Mike Harris

YoY), led by higher polyethylene prices in all region, slightly favorable currency (up +1(212)902-3667 | mike.harris@gs.com

1% YoY), and company self-help initiatives delivering ahead of plan (>$300mn), Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ramsey Abdulrahimwhich were partly offset by lower volume (down 1% YoY) as gains in PMC across both +1(212)902-0091 |

businesses were more than offset by declines in P&SP given planned maintenance ramsey.abdulrahim@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

activity. Jordan Lee

+1(212)357-6986 | jordan.lee@gs.com

2) 3Q guide/2H outlook: For 3Q, DOW guided operating EBITDA to ~$1,700mn with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

~$1,200mn from P&SP, ~$250mn from I^3, and ~300mn from PMC, partly offset by

~($50mn) from corporate. We would note that the current 3Q consensus estimate for

operating EBITDA is $1,867mn compared to $863mn a year ago. Importantly, the Q3

guide assumes no further price declines in PE. For 2H, the company highlighted three

priorities a) growth and innovation in attractive end markets; b) investing in and

strengthening the portfolio; and c) ensuring balanced capital allocation.

3) Update on company self-help initiatives: Given the out-performance in 2Q,