BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA): Q2’26 First Look

Research evidence excerpt

BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA): Q2’26 First Look

Goldman Sachs BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA)

difference in costs vs cons appears to be driven by CIB (€191mn including €178mn

higher than expected costs in Global Markets) and CPBS (€68mn driven primarily by

French Retail and Europe Mediterranean) partly offset by cost beats in Corporate Centre

(€80mn) and IPS (€23mn). The Group CIR of 57% decreased by c.1pp y/y and is c.1pp

lower vs consensus.

Asset Quality: LLPs of €949mn (39bp BNP-defined CoR) came in c.1% above

consensus and in line with the <40bps guidance, with other net losses for risk on

financial instruments of -€99mn related to legal risk on financial instruments. The

7%/€65mn y/y increase in LLPs was driven mainly by the €95mn forward-looking

provision booked in the Corporate Centre to reflect the geopolitical environment, partly

offset by low underlying risk across businesses. The ratio of doubtful loans to gross

outstandings remains subdued at c.1.6%, with the S3 coverage ratio at 66.4%.

Profitability: 2% ahead at net profit, with revenues 4% ahead but costs 2% ahead

(leaving pre-prov 7% above consensus), with exceptional/non-operating income also

above consensus, whereas litigation provisions are also higher, associate income lower

and effective tax rate 2pp higher than consensus.

Capital: CET1 at 13.0% is 10bps ahead of company consensus. The 20bp increase q/q

was driven: +30bp from organic capital generation net of RWA, -20bp for distribution,

and +10bp from other items and scope effects. BNP highlights it currently benefits

~90bps in CET1 from SRT and credit insurance as of 30.06.2026. In terms of capital

return, BNP has announced a 2026 interim dividend of €3.23 (+25% vs the 2025

interim), to be paid out in cash on 28 September 2026.