Strong 2Q26; Expected 2026 Output Unchanged, but Volumes Pushed to 4Q

Research evidence excerpt

Strong 2Q26; Expected 2026 Output Unchanged, but Volumes Pushed to 4Q

Update

July 23, 2026 01:35 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreeport-McMoRan Inc | North America Carlos De Alba

Equity Analyst

Strong 2Q26; Expected 2026 Carlos.De.Alba@morganstanley.comJustin A Ferrer +1 212 761-4927

Research Associate

Justin.Ferrer@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5246

Output Unchanged, but Claudia I Pinedo

Claudia.Pinedo@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-3101

Volumes Pushed to 4Q

Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX.N, FCX UN)

Metals & Mining | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target US$70.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) US$65.00

Mkt cap, curr (mm) US$93,860

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range US$72.26-35.15

Key Takeaways

2Q26 EBITDA and EPS ahead of consensus and MSe on lower net cash costs and

higher than expected sales volumes in copper and molybdenum.

FCX left 2026 copper and gold shipments guidance unchanged, but lowered

3Q26 and raised 4Q26...

… on a segment basis, management lowered copper sales outlook from North

America and South America but raised Indonesia guidance.

2026 net copper cash costs lowered from $1.95/lb to $1.90/lb; but site & delivery

costs increased from $3.18/lb to $3.23/lb

We expect the stock to slightly increase on 2Q26 results and unchanged

guidance.

2Q26 Results: Revenues of $7,029m were above the Visible Alpha consensus of

$6,722m and MSe of $6,482m. Adjusted EBITDA of $2,895m also came in well

ahead of the consensus forecasts of $2,273m and our $2,497m estimate. Adj. EPS of

$0.74 beat the consensus of $0.59 and MSe of $0.63.