Flattening of the Truck Cycle Curve: CMI Announces Phased Engine Rollout

Research evidence excerpt

Flattening of the Truck Cycle Curve: CMI Announces Phased Engine Rollout

Idea

July 23, 2026 01:15 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCummins Inc | North America Angel Castillo

Equity Analyst

Flattening of the Truck Cycle Angel.Castillo@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +1 212 761-1931

Shaqeal A Kirunda

Equity AnalystCurve: CMI Announces Phased Shaqeal.Kirunda@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0736

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCEngine Rollout Oliver Jiang

Research Associate

Oliver.Jiang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6458

Cummins Inc (CMI.N, CMI US)

Machinery & Construction | United States of America

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $761.00

Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) $660.75

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $91,513

52-Week Range $737.76-344.26

Key Takeaways Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

ModelWare EPS ($) 23.79 30.44 35.37 41.11

CMI announces a phased rollout of its X15, and X10 engine platforms with B7.2 Prior EPS ($)** - - - -

P/E 21.5 21.7 18.7 16.1

unchanged.

EPS ($)§ 23.09 29.32 34.07 40.38

Div yld (%) 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3

We believe this reduces some of the incentive to pre-buy, but not all of it,

EPS ($)** 23.79 30.44 35.37 41.11

meaning a steadier Truck cycle recovery is more likely than a roaring end to

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

2026. framework

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

** = Based on consensus methodology

We view this as a positive for the industry, but perhaps most beneficial for DTG, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

followed by CMI, with other OEM's more limited credit bank implying some risk Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current