GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Technoprobe | Siemens Energy | flatexDEGIRO | Solaria | Construction Heatmaps | Carbonomics | Macro | Global |

Research evidence excerpt

GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Technoprobe | Siemens Energy | flatexDEGIRO | Solaria | Construction Heatmaps | Carbonomics | Macro | Global |

Goldman Sachs GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS

approach, we assume Solaria would receive a low-risk ‘royalty’ with an implied IRR of up

to 14%. For context we model a 10% stake in a 1 GW project, estimating this could add

+€4/share to our valuation, implying an upside case value of €29/share (+c.60%

potential upside). Buy with 39% upside. (Alberto Gandolfi)

Construction: Global Heatmaps of Latest Datapoints - We refresh >100

high-frequency macro & construction data points across the globe. At the halfway point

of 2026, pockets of strength remain in Data Centres, policy supported markets

(Infrastructure) and select housing markets coming off near-term lows. However, the

broader construction backdrop remains subdued with volumes broadly flat as

higher-for-longer interest rates continue to weigh on activity, while build cost inflation

remains a near-term challenge. On US Housing, the market continues to be suppressed

with low affordability and the US lock-in effect for mortgages. Political focus is

increasing through Trump’s affordability push in early-26 and recent policy support, but

this is yet to move the needle. Data available on request. (Ben Rada-Martin)

Carbonomics: Incorporating the EU carbon market review into our EU ETS modelling

- We update our EU ETS supply-demand model to incorporate the three levers proposed

by the European Commission on 17 July 2026: (i) a stretched CBAM free allocation

phase-out to 2038 (vs 2034 previously); (ii) a lower post-2030 Linear Reduction Factor;

and (iii) MSR reform halving the intake rate to 12% from 2028. All three measures soften

the market balance across 2027–33 but do not push it into surplus.