Lithium: Beyond the peak

Research evidence excerpt

Lithium: Beyond the peak

Equities ● Metals & Mining

23 July 2026

Looking ahead, more than 160 new EV models are expected to launch in 2H26, with many

targeting the mass market. HSBC China auto analysts expect this to help support a demand

recovery in that segment.

We expect lithium demand to grow 19% y-o-y in 2026e and at a 14% CAGR during 2026-30e.

ESS is becoming the primary incremental growth driver

2,400

2,000 148 kt 129 kt 24 kt 5 kt

1,600

1,200

2025 EV - incremental ESS - incremental Batttery (ex-EV Others - 2026e

and ESS) - incremental

incremental

EV ESS Batttery (ex-EV and ESS) Others

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Company reports, HSBC estimates

Keeping a close eye on supply

CATL’s Jianxiawo mine has now obtained all required permits and is in the process of

restarting. Operations were halted in August 2025 after the relevant approvals were not

renewed. The mine and associated refinery have an estimated nameplate capacity of c100kt

LCE per annum. The restart timeline is broadly consistent with our expectations, and we

forecast production of c48kt LCE in 2026..

Encouraged by the higher price environment, we are seeing the resumption of assets previously

placed on care and maintenance during the previous downturn – most notably Ngungaju, Bald

Hill, and Finniss. At full utilisation, these three operations could collectively contribute c500-

600kt per year of spodumene concentrate (equivalent to c65-80kt LCE). Given typical ramp-up

profiles, the bulk of the supply impact is likely to be felt in 2027 rather than immediately.

Following an initial announcement of a ban on lithium concentrate exports, Zimbabwe

subsequently indicated it would move to an export quota regime in 2026, alongside requests for