EU Autos: What‘s baked in: Warnings no, downgrades maybe

Research evidence excerpt

EU Autos: What‘s baked in: Warnings no, downgrades maybe

23 July 2026

Equities

AutomobilesEU Autos

What’s baked in: Warnings no, downgrades maybe Europe

◆ Wide 2026 guidance ranges offer cushion from profit warnings,

Michael Tyndall*, CFA

but OEMs may opt to trim these to realistic levels Senior Global Autos Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ China weakness and logistics costs may not be fully accounted michael.tyndall@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 6301

in current expectations; hence see downside risks Pushkar Tendolkar*

Global Autos Analyst

◆ We favour BMW with relatively derisked guide, also like VW, HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

MBG and RNO (all Buys); STLAM (Reduce) on inventory issues pushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in

+91 80 4555 2752

Moment for further warnings has passed. There was a risk that after BMW’s profit Alice Martin* Global Autos Analyst

warning (16 June), other OEMs would also warn given some of the issues underlying HSBC Bank plc

alice.martin@hsbc.com

BMW’s warning were industry-wide. As we enter the thick of earnings season starting next +44 20 7992 0175

week, it seems that this risk of further profit warnings has passed. However, this does not

mean that there won’t be downgrades to 2026 guidance and earnings. For a few OEMs, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

we think H1 results are likely to be below the mid-point of their respective full year 2026 not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

guidance range (Mercedes, Volkswagen, Renault; see: page 11) and therefore see a

possibility that they decide to trim their guidance with H1 results to derisk their outlooks for

any potential warnings later in the year.

Logistics/energy costs an issue for 2026e; raw materials for 2027e. Volumes (ex.